The Populism Trap: Why Kenya’s Future Demands a Shift from Populist Ideologies

Kenya's former President Uhuru Kenyatta (left) shakes hands with incumbent President William Ruto at a past public religious event. PHOTO/William Ruto.
  • We must prioritise credible leadership over populist narratives to address our socio-economic challenges, strengthen our democratic institutions, and reclaim our position as a regional leader.
  • Former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s ascent to power in 2013 leaned heavily on the narrative of being a victim of the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) prosecution and a unifier of ethnic groups.
  • Populist politics appeal to emotions rather than reason, creating simplistic solutions to complex problems while deepening societal divisions.

Populism, a political approach that pits “the people” against “the elite,” has become a dominant force globally, often emerging during periods of crisis.

This ideology simplifies complex issues, presenting a charismatic leader as the people’s voice against perceived enemies, such as the political elite or foreign powers.

Globally, populist politics have shaped governance, with leaders like United States President-elect Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, and the Brexit movement in the United Kingdom (UK) riding on populist waves.

While these leaders initially inspire hope for radical change, their governance often falters due to the oversimplification of policies and erosion of democratic institutions. In Kenya, populism has significantly influenced political transitions in the last two decades.

In 2002, former President Mwai Kibaki rose to power on the back of a populist wave that promised to end corruption and rebuild the economy after President Daniel Arap Moi’s authoritarian rule.

Kibaki’s first term was marked by substantial economic growth and infrastructure development, but his second term saw setbacks, including the 2007-2008 post-election violence that devastated the nation.

Former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s ascent to power in 2013 leaned heavily on the narrative of being a victim of the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) prosecution and a unifier of ethnic groups.

While his second term featured notable infrastructural development and the controversial “Handshake” with Raila Odinga, his first term was marred by allegations of corruption and stagnation.

President William Ruto’s election campaign in 2022 relied on the “hustler narrative,” positioning himself as a champion of the ordinary Kenyan against the political dynasties.

This resonated with a disenfranchised electorate, but his administration has faced immediate challenges, including rising inflation and governance questions.

As Kenya approaches the 2027 elections, early signs suggest a reliance on populist rhetoric and tribal alliances, raising critical questions about the long-term impact of such politics on national progress.

The Challenge with Populist Politics

Populist politics appeal to emotions rather than reason, creating simplistic solutions to complex problems while deepening societal divisions.

This approach is particularly dangerous in Kenya, where ethnic and tribal alliances remain deeply ingrained in political discourse. Populist leaders often rely on divisive narratives, portraying themselves as the voice of the oppressed against the elite.

For example, President Ruto’s “bottom-up economic model” was marketed as a transformative solution to address inequality and poverty but has faced scrutiny for lacking actionable and realistic steps, progress, and outcomes. Similarly, Uhuru Kenyatta’s early promises to tackle unemployment and economic stagnation were undermined by mismanagement and corruption scandals, including the loss of public funds in the National Youth Service (NYS) scandal.

Populism undermines democratic institutions by concentrating power in the hands of a leader and eroding checks and balances. During Kibaki’s tenure, political divisions and inadequate institutional reforms led to the post-election crisis of 2007-2008.

Uhuru’s administration, particularly during the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) introduction, faced criticism for sidelining public participation and imposing a top-down approach to governance.

Tribalism further complicates populist politics in Kenya, with leaders exploiting ethnic identities to consolidate support. The violence following the disputed 2007 elections and the heightened tensions in subsequent elections illustrate the dangers of this approach.

Moreover, populist politics often prioritise short-term political gains over long-term economic stability. Projects like the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR), while symbolically significant, have raised questions about their economic sustainability due to opaque procurement processes and mounting public debt.

Corruption remains another major challenge, with successive administrations failing to tackle graft decisively, draining public resources and eroding public trust in leadership.

The Flip Side of Populism is Credible Leadership

Do we really have credible leaders who can lead Kenya? Kenya’s sustainable growth leadership in the continent and globally could be subject to a shift from populist politics to embracing credible leadership rooted in integrity, competence, and a commitment to national development.

Credible leaders prioritise institutional reforms that strengthen governance structures. For instance, the judiciary’s independence under Chief Justice Willy Mutunga’s leadership demonstrated how institutional integrity can bolster democracy and public confidence.

Transparent and accountable leadership fosters a culture of responsibility, reducing corruption and enhancing service delivery. During Kibaki’s first term, strategic investments in education and infrastructure and sound fiscal management catalysed economic growth.

A similar focus on policies prioritising long-term benefits over political expediency can revive Kenya’s economic trajectory.

Inclusive leadership also fosters national unity, bridging ethnic and ideological divides. Despite its controversies, the “Handshake” between Uhuru and Raila Odinga underscored the potential for collaborative efforts to promote peace and stability.

Visionary leaders can amplify Kenya’s regional influence by leveraging its strategic position in East Africa.

Kenya’s role in mediating regional conflicts and driving initiatives like the East African Community (EAC) highlights the importance of stable governance in asserting its regional leadership.

Credible leadership can also unlock the potential of Kenya’s youthful population. Leaders can empower the youth to drive economic transformation by investing in education, technology, and entrepreneurship.

Programmes like the Ajira Digital Initiative and efforts to position Kenya as a tech hub through initiatives like Konza City underscore the potential of innovative policies to create jobs and enhance global competitiveness.

To combat corruption, leaders must provide political support to anti-corruption agencies, ensuring their independence and effectiveness. The Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC) requires sufficient resources and autonomy to hold public officials accountable, setting a precedent for good governance.

A Call to Action for Kenyans

As Kenya gears up for the 2027 elections, citizens face a critical decision shaping the nation’s trajectory. Tribal alliances and populist rhetoric, often the defining features of Kenyan elections, have perpetuated cycles of disillusionment and stagnation.

Kenyans must reject these patterns and embrace and prioritise credible leadership. Breaking tribal alliances requires a collective effort to move beyond ethnic identities and evaluate leaders based on their track records and vision.

Kenyans must resist the allure of charismatic narratives that oversimplify complex challenges and instead demand detailed, actionable plans from candidates.

Civic education is pivotal in equipping voters with the knowledge to make informed choices. Civil society organisations, educational institutions, and religious leaders must intensify efforts to raise awareness about the importance of voting based on policies rather than personalities.

Citizens must also engage actively in political discourse, scrutinising manifestos and participating in debates to hold leaders accountable for their promises.

Supporting independent candidates and smaller parties can disrupt the dominance of political dynasties and inject fresh perspectives into governance.

Technology, particularly social media, can serve as a platform for transparency and civic engagement.

However, citizens must remain vigilant against misinformation and propaganda often accompanying populist campaigns.

The 2027 elections present an opportunity for Kenyans to redefine their political landscape.

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We must prioritise credible leadership over populist narratives to address our socio-economic challenges, strengthen our democratic institutions, and reclaim our position as a regional leader.

The power to chart this course lies in our hands as the electorate. Kenyans, we must rise to the occasion and choose leaders who embody integrity, competence, and a commitment to national unity and progress.

This moment calls for a collective resolve to break free from the chains of populism and embrace credible leaders driven by accountability, inclusivity, and visionary leadership.

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Dr. Ang’ana is a Leadership, Governance and Policy Consultant, and Advisor and CEO at Accent Leadership Group.

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