By Obed Simiyu.
- Reports from Washington D.C. suggest that the Senate’s re-evaluation is driven by concerns over Kenya’s evolving foreign policy.
- The US sees Kenya as a key democratic partner in a strategically vital region and fears that deepening ties with rivals could compromise this alignment.
- The most immediate concern for many Kenyans and the international development community is how this review could affect immigration policies.
- For scholars and policymakers, it raises fundamental questions about the nature of alliances in the 21st century and the challenges faced by developing nations in balancing their own national ambitions with the expectations of their global partners.
In May 2024, the United States (US) designated Kenya as a Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA), a historic first for a country in Sub-Saharan Africa.
This designation, a hallmark of deep trust and strategic partnership, was celebrated as a new chapter in US-Kenya relations. It signalled enhanced security cooperation, favourable access to military equipment, an issue that Kenya has been grappling with as it tackles Al-Shabaab militants in the Coastal, Nairobi and North Eastern regions and the bandit/cattle rustlers menace in its North Rift region.
However, less than a year later, this special status is now under review by the US Senate.
This scrutiny is not a trivial matter. It represents a potential shift in the diplomatic landscape and could have tangible policy implications for both nations, particularly concerning immigration and economic ties.
Kenya’s top Diplomat, the Principal Secretary for Foreign Affairs Dr Korir Sing’oei has however downplayed the implications of the review.
In a rejoinder post on his official X page, Dr Sing’oei in a response to one of Kenya’s revered legal minds (Paul Muite) quipped that the US Senate’s review would be “done in recognition of Kenya’s Sovereignty”. The Senior Counsel was not amused.
The Rationale for Scrutiny
Reports from Washington D.C. suggest that the Senate’s re-evaluation is driven by concerns over Kenya’s evolving foreign policy. The central issue appears to be Kenya’s growing economic and diplomatic engagements with other global powers, specifically China.
The US sees Kenya as a key democratic partner in a strategically vital region and fears that deepening ties with rivals could compromise this alignment.
Moreover, Kenya’s involvement in the conflict in the Sudan conflict has also drawn attention, with allegations that Nairobi is funding the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that is involved in a deadly civil war with the nation’s recognized military.
The US Senate is reportedly examining the nature of this engagement and whether it aligns with broader US foreign policy objectives.
This situation highlights a classic diplomatic dilemma: How can a nation balance its sovereign right to pursue a diversified foreign policy with the expectations of a major strategic partner?
Potential Ramifications for Immigration and Development
The most immediate concern for many Kenyans and the international development community is how this review could affect immigration policies.
While a direct, immediate revocation of the MNNA status is not guaranteed, a negative review could lead to a less favourable climate for visa applicants.
History offers a cautionary tale. In other African nations, US concerns over governance, human rights, or foreign policy have, at times, led to stricter visa vetting, increased scrutiny of applications, and a general tightening of immigration processes.
Should the US Senate’s review result in a downgrading of Kenya’s status or a change in perception, the potential consequences could include:
- Increased Scrutiny of Visa Applications
The process for students, professionals, and tourists could become more rigorous, with longer processing times and a higher burden of proof required from applicants.
- Reduced Economic and Educational Exchange
The goodwill and favourable consideration that came with the MNNA status could wane, potentially impacting educational scholarships, professional fellowship programmes, business visas, and collaborative research initiatives.
The MNNA designation was tied to significant economic commitments made during President William Ruto’s state visit to the US.
These included major investments in technology and green energy, enhanced security cooperation, and increased funding for healthcare initiatives.
The continued momentum of these agreements could be jeopardised if the US partnership is perceived as less central.
- Impact on Trade Pact
Kenya and the United States have been engaged in a sustained effort to formalise their trade relationship for over seven years, with limited success.
Negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), initiated under the Trump and Kenyatta administrations in 2020, were discontinued by the Biden administration in 2021. In its place, the two nations launched the U.S.-Kenya Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP) in July 2022.
However, the STIP, which has undergone at least eight rounds of negotiations, now faces an uncertain future. The recent change in U.S. administration with the onset of the Trump II presidency in January 2025 has led to a potential stagnation of the STIP, reflecting a pattern of trade policy shifts tied to changes at the White House. Kenya is among the countries that the US slapped with a 10% tariff rates in April, despite AGOA programme still being in place till its expiry on 30th September 2025.
- A “Chilling Effect” on People-to-People Ties
The uncertainty could discourage some Kenyans from even attempting to pursue opportunities in the US, thereby limiting a vital channel for cultural and intellectual exchange.
Kenya’s Diplomatic Tightrope
The situation puts Kenya in a delicate position. As a sovereign nation, it has a right and a responsibility to forge partnerships that serve its national interests.
Engagement with countries like China is essential for Kenya’s economic development, particularly in infrastructure and trade. This South-South cooperation is a cornerstone of Kenya’s regional and global strategy.
However, the US review underscores the geopolitical complexities of navigating a multi-polar world.
Kenya must demonstrate its commitment to its democratic values and its strategic alignment with the US while simultaneously pursuing a diversified and independent foreign policy.
The outcome of the Senate review will be a critical test of Kenya’s diplomatic prowess and its ability to manage these competing demands.
The debate in the US Senate is more than a procedural matter; it is a high-stakes conversation about the future of a key bilateral relationship.
For scholars and policymakers, it raises fundamental questions about the nature of alliances in the 21st century and the challenges faced by developing nations in balancing their own national ambitions with the expectations of their global partners.
Obed Simiyu is journalist based in Nairobi with a keen interest in Diplomatic affairs.
